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Research Telemetry
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Superconducting (IBM, Google, Rigetti) leads on logical-qubit demonstrations; neutral-atom (QuEra, Atom Computing) leads on per-qubit error rates; trapped-ion (IonQ, Quantinuum) leads on fidelity; photonic (PsiQuantum, Xanadu) bets on direct fault tolerance at scale.
Key Points
Below-threshold logical qubits reached across multiple platforms in 2025.
Vendor roadmaps converge on 2028–29 utility-scale machines; independent experts model 2030–32.
First commercial value will come from quantum chemistry, not cryptanalysis or finance optimization.
Sovereign investment now exceeds private VC funding by 4–5×.
Best logical-qubit fidelity (2026)
99.95%
vs 99.5% in 2024Quantinuum H2, trapped ion
Largest physical-qubit system
1,121 qubits
IBM Condornon-fault-tolerant
Cumulative sovereign investment
$32B
11B YoYglobal, public commitments
Quantum-as-a-service revenue
$1.5B
34% YoYmostly R&D contracts
Google's 105-qubit Willow processor demonstrates logical-qubit error rates that decrease as code distance increases — first below-threshold result at scale.
IBM commits to 200-logical-qubit fault-tolerant system by 2029 via Flamingo modular architecture; current Heron supports 156 physical qubits.
Trapped-ion H2 system demonstrates 99.94% two-qubit fidelity and full all-to-all connectivity — leading metric for fault-tolerant logic gates.
Cumulative government investment in quantum across U.S., EU, China, Japan, UK, Australia has reached $32B+; China leads single-country commitment.
NIST PQC standards finalized; federal migration mandated by 2030. Cryptanalytic quantum threat is still 8–12 years out per consensus estimates.
PsiQuantum claims 1M-qubit photonic system by 2027 in Australia; aggressive timeline contested by some experts.
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