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semianalysis.com·this weekHyperscaler Capex Tracker Q2 2026
Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle combined capex reached $98B in Q2 2026, on track for $400B+ annual.
Cred
93
Auth
91
Fresh
96
Rel
88
Reasoning Engine
Conducting research…
- Discovering sourcesIdentified 6 candidate sources across 3 publication types.
- Analyzing sourcesExtracted atomic claims; scored credibility, recency, and bias on each.
- Cross-referencingDetected contradictions and reconciled overlapping claims.
- Synthesizing findingsCompressed claim graph into structural themes and a working thesis.
- Generating intelligenceDrafted executive brief, evidence map, risks, and recommendations.
Research Telemetry
live · demoReasoning
86/100
Confidence
87/100
Evidence
89/100
Depth
82/100
Diversity
84/100
Synthesized Answer
Project power-constraint scenarios
Hyperscaler 2026–2027 announced capacity outpaces interconnect-ready power by ~1.5–1.8×. Without grid reform or behind-the-meter generation, 12–24 months of announced capacity is at risk of slipping.
Key Points
- Announced 2026–2027 capacity exceeds power readiness by 1.5–1.8×
- Bear: 25–35% of capacity slips 12–18 months
- Base: 10–18% slippage; behind-the-meter plugs ~10% of gap
- Nuclear PPAs (Talen, Constellation, Vistra) signed through 2030+
- SMR + transmission deliver only on 2028+ timeline
Knowledge Graph
11 nodes · 13 edgestopicconceptcompanyentity
Auto-generated Insights
Trend
Power has overtaken chips as the binding constraint on data-center buildouts.
Finding
Custom silicon hits 15% of inference share; first credible challenge to Nvidia dominance.
Signal
Nuclear PPAs are emerging as the new strategic asset class for hyperscalers.
Contradiction
Capex disclosures imply 60% YoY growth; grid data caps physical buildout at 30–40%.
Structured Data
Hyperscaler 2026 capex
$400B+
60% YoYMicrosoft+Google+Meta+Amazon+Oracle
Nvidia accelerator share
85%
−4pp YoYdata-center revenue
U.S. data center power share
5.6%
1.6pp YoYof total grid load
PJM interconnect queue
6+ years
vs ~2 years pre-AINorthern Virginia data center alley
Sources6 ranked
Sorted by relevance
Report
E
eia.gov·this weekAI Power Demand and Grid Constraints
U.S. data center electricity demand projected to reach 9% of total grid load by 2028, up from 4% in 2024. PJM interconnect queue at 6+ years.
Cred
96
Auth
96
Fresh
92
Rel
88
N
nextplatform.com·this weekNvidia Market Share and Roadmap Update
Nvidia retains ~85% data-center accelerator revenue share; Blackwell Ultra ramps Q3 2026, Rubin in H2 2027.
Cred
88
Auth
85
Fresh
95
Rel
88
R
reuters.com·this weekMicrosoft-Constellation Three Mile Island Restart
Microsoft signed a 20-year PPA for the full output of Three Mile Island Unit 1, restarting by 2028 to power AI data centers.
Cred
92
Auth
90
Fresh
94
Rel
88
S
semianalysis.com·this weekCustom AI Silicon: TPU, Trainium, MTIA Comparison
Custom silicon now accounts for ~15% of inference workloads at hyperscalers; cost advantages of 2–4× on optimized workloads.
Cred
92
Auth
90
Fresh
90
Rel
88
I
ieee.org·this weekUltra Ethernet Consortium Update
UEC 1.0 specification ratified; aims to match InfiniBand performance for AI scale-out by 2027. AMD, Broadcom, Cisco, Meta backing.
Cred
95
Auth
94
Fresh
86
Rel
88
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Demo mode · All sources, insights, and data are mock-generated for illustration.